Analysis · Chicago · Wednesday, October 7, 2026
Chicago Permits Spike 21.8%, But Billings Lag
- Chicago permits up 21.8% to $556M, but billings lag.
- Office spending up 13.3% over 3 months, driving current activity.
- Plywood PPI up 9.6% y/y, increasing panel costs.
What moved
Chicago permit value rose 21.8% to $556M in September. This is a significant jump, but it is a volatile index. A single large project can double a month. The number of permits fell 5.0% to 359, suggesting the value increase is driven by a few large projects rather than broad activity. Office spending is up 13.3% over 3 months, and nonresidential spending is up 2.0%. These are leading indicators for millwork work. Architecture billings are at 47.2, below 50. This is a negative signal. Billings lead nonresidential construction by 9 to 12 months, and millwork is finish stage, so add 3 to 6 more. This means the current permit spike may not translate to new design work for another year.
What it means in Chicago
For a Chicago millwork shop, the next two quarters will be about executing on the permits issued now. The GCs are already named, and they will begin buying out millwork in the next 3 to 9 months. Focus on buyout calls with GCs like Redmond Construction and Bulley & Andrews. The office sector is driving the current activity, with spending up 13.3% over 3 months. This suggests a strong pipeline of office buildouts and renovations. The healthcare sector is also active, with 5 of the 10 permits this week in healthcare. This is a steady source of millwork work, with high casework density per square foot.
Costs
The Millwork PPI is at 195.8, down 0.7% month over month. This is a positive signal for material costs. The Cabinet PPI is at 288.0, up 4.3% year over year. This suggests that cabinet and countertop costs are rising. The Plywood PPI is at 248.1, up 9.6% year over year. This is a significant increase in panel costs, which will affect the cost of most casework. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.99%, up 7.5% over 3 months. This is a negative signal for project financing. Higher yields delay private projects, which may affect the pipeline of new work.
What we are watching
The next AIA/Deltek billings report, which will show if the current permit spike is translating to new design work. The movement in the Plywood PPI, which will affect the cost of most casework. The 10-year Treasury yield, which will affect project financing and the pipeline of new work.
Numbers from the sources linked in the table below. The prose is our read, written around the stored indicator table and nothing else. Arrows read through what is good for a millwork shop: rising costs point down.